Trade Watch: Michael Soroka emerging as a Cubs target

Kiyoshi Mio - USA Today Sports

Dustin Riese · Senior Writer · 8 hours ago

The All-Star Break can't come soon enough for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, the break will give the Cubs four off days to rest, recover, and reset as they focus on making what looks to be a strong second-half run. Secondly, it will allow the Cubs to focus on the trade market even more in-depth than they already are, as they are locked, loaded, and ready to make a deal for something.

In what has become the norm for the better part of a month, every day, a new name is added to the list of potential targets for this team. You saw that earlier this week with Adrian Houser and Lucas Giolito, and today marks another new name to dive into as the Cubs have been linked to another pitching target.

This is a name that a mere five years ago would've never been put on the market, but due to a rash of injuries and a loss of Ace form, Michael Soroka is popping up as a potential trade target for the Cubs, and one that is making more sense by the day. Although his numbers don't look great at 3-7 and a 5.35 ERA across 13 starts, there is so much more under the hood to dive into that may change your mind as a target.

For starters, Soroka is operating with a 26.2% strikeout rate this season, which is the highest strikeout rate of his career. He has done that with a walk rate of just over 6% at 6.4% and a groundball rate of nearly 50% at 45.8%. Those are all considered elite numbers, but given his elevated ERA and the win/loss record, people tend to overlook all of the underlying stats that can determine the pitcher you are.

Going even further, you have a guy with a 20-25 career record and a 3.96 ERA, as he has had some great seasons in the past. Soroka burst onto the scene in 2018 when he was the first of what was an intense wave of Atlanta Braves prospects. He only went 2-1 that season with a 3.51 ERA across five starts, but it was the 2019 season that put him on the map as one of the game's best arms.

Not only did Soroka emerge as the Ace of the Braves staff, pitching to a 13-4 record, but he did so with a 2.68 ERA over 29 starts. Then came the COVID year, where he pitched to an ERA under 4.00, but only made three starts before the injury bug began to take its toll. It got so bad when it came to injuries that Soroka didn't pitch in an MLB game during either the 2021 or 2022 season, which led some to believe that his career could be over almost as quickly as it started.

After a lengthy period away from the game, Soroka did indeed return to the Braves in 2023, where he wound up going 2-2 with an ERA north of six in six games. That was enough for them to see the end was near, as they wound up trading him to the Chicago White Sox ahead of the 2024 season.

During his time on the Southside, Soroka showed flashes, but with a 0-10 record and a 4.74 ERA, no one is going to look at it that way, much like they are going to look at his numbers from this season as the measuring stick for how good or bad he is.

When Soroka was in his prime, you were looking at a pitcher who could consistently touch 95-96 MPH with his heater while mixing in a steady dose of off-speed breaking pitches to offset the hitters' timing. Once the injuries started to settle in, that fastball dropped to 93 MPH while the breaking stuff wasn't as sharp as it was in the past.

This season is a prime example that he still has something left in the tank and could be getting close to 100% healthy. Adding Soroka to this team may not seem like a good idea when you look at how Colin Rea and Cade Horton have pitched, but at some point, you have to wonder if both of them will be on an innings limit.

At the very worst, Soroka is one of those swing guys you can place in the pen to use how the Cubs see fit. This is only the start for what is to come with the rumor mill.