2023 season win total projections for Cubs
Matt Marton - USA Today Sports

2023 season win total projections for Cubs

by - Staff Writer -

Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air! The Cubs are finally back in action in Spring Training, following a disappointing season that resulted in a 74-88 record — good for third place in a weak National League Central.

While the Cubs lost Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, PJ Higgins, Alfonso Rivas and Matt Swarmer — they have made a slew of additions that should improve the team in 2023: shortstop Dansby Swanson, center fielder / first baseman Cody Bellinger, first baseman Eric Hosmer, first baseman/ outfielder/ designated hitter Trey Mancini, catcher Tucker Barnhart, starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly and relief pitchers Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer.

So let’s take a look and see what various websites and sportsbooks have the Cubs projected for a highly anticipated 2023 season.

Despite all of the moves the Cubs made, Fangraphs projects the Cubs to finish 75-87, only gaining one win from the 2022 season to the present. Fangraphs also predicts that Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner will lead the Cubs in WAR, with Swanson leading the Cubs in runs, hits, doubles, and RBIs. Patrick Wisdom is the projected home run leader with 26.

On the pitching side of things, Fangraphs has Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele leading the way for them on the mound.

According to PECOTA, the Cubs are projected to be 77-85, still good for just third place in the NL Central. PECOTA does not love the Cubs offensively, expecting Seiya Suzuki to lead the Cubs with 22 home runs and 70 RBIs. In terms of batting average, Nick Madrigal is projected the highest at a measly .270. Swanson is the projected leader in other stats. On the mound, Stroman is anticipated to lead the Cubs in wins, innings, and strikeouts — and Brandon Hughes is the projected closer, who PECOTA has saving 23 games.

That’s what some of the numbers say, but let’s take a look at what some sportsbooks have the Cubs over/under lines set at.

BET MGM: 77.5

Fanduel: 76.5

DraftKings: 77.5

BetRivers: 78.5

Pointsbet: 77.5

Barstool: 78.5

So it appears all projections and sportsbooks have the Cubs below .500, somewhere between 75-79 wins in the 2023 season. While it is obvious that these projections are not the end all, be all — many would have expected, with the number of moves the Cubs made to improve this offseason, and after their strong finish to the 2022 season, that the Cubs would be projected closer to .500 baseball or better — or at least higher than they achieved a season ago.

PECOTA has historically always been low on the Cubs, and at the very least, these projections can serve as some bulletin board material for the team as they try to prove some doubters and nay-sayers wrong.

But as it appears right now, there are many doubting how good the Cubs can be in 2023.

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